The California Numbers: Autism Declining Among Three Year Olds

During a presentation Kirby gave in May, he mentioned that someone had paid California to study only the three year olds and that in the first quarter of 2007 their autism rate declined.

This quarter they went down again.

And how sad is it that a private citizen had to pay California to run autism numbers on 3 year olds? If they wanted to know what was going on with the children in that state, they would have run the numbers on their own.

Is Autism Declining?
David Kirby
HuffPo
Posted July 12, 2007 | 02:28 AM (EST)

For quite some time, the American government, health establishment and mainstream media have repeated the mantra that mercury containing vaccines were eliminated "several years ago," yet the number of autism cases continues to climb - the inference being that injecting organic mercury into newborn babies has now been proven to be 100% safe.

The problem, though, is that there is no proof that mercury was eliminated "years ago" and, more importantly, now there are signs that autism rates among the youngest children might actually be falling.

On Wednesday, the California Department of Developmental Services released data from the second quarter of 2007, showing that the number of 3-5 year olds with autism in the state system increased by 169 children over the first quarter of 2007. This is about the same quarterly increase seen in the state over the past several years.

But it turns out that a private citizen has paid the state each quarter to analyze the autism numbers according to year of birth, and not just by age group. State law requires that such privately funded analyses be made available to anyone else who asks for it.

So I asked for it. What I got was rather interesting.

After breaking down the current data among 3-5 year olds by year of birth, you notice that the number of cases among children born in 2002 (who are now roughly five years old) and 2003 (or roughly four years old) continued to go up.

But among those kids born in 2004 (who are now turning three years old) the number of cases has fallen, as compared to kids born in 2003.

For example, at the midpoint of 2006, there were 2,250 children born in 2001 (or roughly, five-year olds) with autism counted in the system. By the same period of 2007, the number of kids with autism born in 2002 had risen to 2,490, an increase of 240 children, or 10.7%.

Among "four year olds," the increase was even more dramatic, with 326 more kids diagnosed with autism midway in 2007 than in 2006, a startling jump of 17%.

But among the very youngest kids counted, the story was the opposite. At the end of June 2006, there were 688 children born in 2003 with autism diagnoses. This June, the number of kids born in 2004 with autism was 632, a statistically significant drop of 56 children, or 8.1% less than last year at this time.

This marks the second drop of its kind among the youngest children in California (which tracks "full spectrum" autism only, and not milder forms of the disorder). It follows the first quarter of this year, when 251 children born in 2004 entered the system, compared with 264 kids born in 2003 who were enrolled in the first quarter of 2006 - a modest decline of 13 students, or 4.9%.

Keep in mind that these drops are being reported despite the fact that:

1) Rates among kids born just one or two years earlier continue to spiral upward

2) California has experienced a recent baby boomlet (the number of 0-4 year olds rose by 9,369 in 2002, according to census estimates; but jumped by 62,393 in 2004).

3) Legal and illegal immigration continues to rise from countries that still use the full amount of mercury in childhood vaccines.

4) Aggressive early intervention campaigns have consistently brought down the average age of autism diagnoses.

Intriguing though the numbers may be, it is far too early to know if this refreshing downward movement will turn into a bona fide trend. The deficit of 56 children could be made up by the end of the year.

But the decline does not come in a vacuum. Minnesota, for example, tracks autism among children as young as two years of age, (though the counting is done through the school system, and is considered less reliable than California's data).

The rate of two-year-olds diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in Minnesota peaked in 2003, at 4.45-per-10,000 kids. By 2005, the rate fell to 3.88-per-10,000, and last year it was 3.55-per-10,000, a drop of 20.2% since 2003.

We will have to wait until these kids get a bit older to see if the decline holds true.

Meanwhile, back in California at the massive Kaiser Permanente healthcare, officials reported that, among 5-9 year olds in their system in 2006, the rate of ASD was 93-per-10,000. But among the youngest kids, 2-4 years old, it was 66-per-10,000 - some 40% lower.

One would naturally expect to see fewer 2-4 year olds than 5-9 year olds with an ASD diagnosis. But in 2004, Kaiser began recommending routine ASD screening for all children at 24 months of age. Presumably, the majority of the 2-4 year olds in the system have now been screened for ASD, which must, by definition, appear before age 3 for a diagnosis to be made.

Sadly, more 2-year-olds at Kaiser will end up with ASD, and some stragglers among the 3-and-4-year-olds will also turn up. But whether they can make up the 40% deficit compared with their older siblings remains to be seen.

Are autism rates dropping? I would never say they are for sure. We simply have to wait and see.

But there are tantalizing hints that autism is indeed starting to decline among the very youngest children, born and vaccinated more recently, when mercury was transitioned out of most shots.

Which brings us to the, mercury was removed "several years ago" mantra, whose best retort is probably: "Says who?"

According to the Boston Herald, the last mercury-containing shots given to US children expired back in 1999. The Washington Post, meanwhile, put the date at 2001, the FDA said it was 2002, the Institute of Medicine and the Immunization Action Coalition said 2003, and the Council of State Governments claimed it was "early 2004."

Who's right? We may never know. But we do know that companies were still manufacturing mercury-containing shots for American kids in 2001, and most vaccines have a shelf life of about two years. And we know that 90% of flu shots given to pregnant women and infants still contain the full amount of mercury today.

The number of California kids born in 2004 who have autism is, by any measure, still too high. True, we don't know how many of those 632 children were exposed to mercury in routine vaccines overseas, or flu shots here at home. But with numbers this lofty, it's highly unlikely that thimerosal alone was responsible for the entire autism epidemic.

If mercury is but one cause of autism, there must be other causes as well.

Let's say that autism cases among three-year-olds fall by 10% or so by year's end. Could thimerosal be the cause of 10% of autism cases? That would still mean tens of thousands of Americans injured by mercury in their vaccines. Moreover, identifying the cause in just 10% of cases might help us discover what is causing the other 90%.

But I am writing way ahead of myself here.

Regardless of one's position on the mercury-autism contretemps, I hope everyone can agree that an actual drop in the numbers, no matter what the cause, would provide a welcome respite from the endless chorus of grim news we all seem to face these days.

[At the request of Kristina Chew and David Kirby I had removed the following two updates. I have since thought better of it and replaced them. I thought it was a move to keep the peace, but as no peace has been kept, I will repost it. Censorship, especially after the fact, is rarely a good idea, and I am sorry that I did it. I will be offering a full discussion on the matter in another post.

As I cannot repost the deleted comments from Ms. Chew and Ms. Clark, I invite them to repost them to the comments section if they wish.]

UPDATE: Roy Grinker, epidemic denier at GW, leaves an comment on the HuffPo piece, but doesn't use his real name. Kirby calls him out and offers a public debate.

RE: This comment on Huffpost:

“Unfortunately, Mr. Kirby continues to believe that California's DDS enrollment figures constitute epidemiological data. They do not. The author even makes a claim about statistical significance! He also introduces a new term into the discussion -- "full spectrum" -- (which he suggests is equivalent to Autistic Disorder) -- and states that the DDS counts only Autistic Disorder, not PDD-NOS, or Asperger's, or Down's Syndrome children with autism, or any other phenotype. This is absolutely wrong. Not even the best epidemiological studies are particularly good at distinguishing among the subtypes. It is truly disappointing to see the Huffington Post continue to publish phony epidemiology.”

Signed: Mfano

But “backstage” I see that his email is actually rgrink@gwu.edu

If Dr. Grinker would like to debate this subject out in the open, using his real name, I would be more than happy to take part. You would think that someone of his stature would have more pressing things to do with George Washington University’s time and bandwidth than send anonymous, erroneous comments to national political blogs.

Update: From "celiacdaughter" on the EOH list:

...If you search some of his (Mfano) previous posts you will also note that he enjoys using the third person when discussing himself:

"So Foresam, tell us: how Grinker should look for autistic adults? The woman Grinker and Chew wrote about in the blog wasn't on record anywhere as autistic. Grinker doesn't say, but she probably bit herself and smeared feces too. No one missed her. She was called mentally retarded and given lots of treatment and care. She just wasn't called autistic"...

Update: Back to the original point. A mom in Iowa says Autism rates are dropping there too.

"It seems to me, there is a story in the Iowa stats as well. Iowa being the first state to remove/ban thimerosal, with exception to influenza, and our rates reflect a 20% decrease."

http://www.vaproject.org/statistics/autism-statistics.html

National Autism Prevalence Trends from United States Special Education Data

The following is taken from the official State statistics produced by the Department of Education in the United States, for numbers of children aged 3-5 served by IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) who have autism. It compares the increase over five years between 2000-01 and 2005-06:

State	2000-2001	2005-2006	Percentage Increase
Alabama	84	178	112
Alaska	27	X	X
Arizona	94	287	205
Arkansas	95	106	12
California	3,422	7,968	133
Colorado	53	157	196
Connecticut	152	412	171
Delaware	62	101	63
DC	16	39	144
Florida	847	1,598	89
Georgia	272	550	102
Hawaii	88	149	69
Idaho	28	86	207
Illinois	670	1,256	87
Indiana	456	777	70
Iowa	128	102	-20
Kansas	87	172	98
Kentucky	168	270	61
Louisiana	121	294	143
Maine	150	311	107
Maryland	371	641	73
Massachusetts	231	1,370	493
Michigan	631	1,212	92
Minnesota	345	1,159	236
Mississippi	34	69	103
Missouri	134	283	111
Montana	40	44	10
Nebraska	37	154	316
Nevada	89	422	374
New Hampshire	55	112	104
New Jersey	397	734	85
New Mexico	6	96	1,500
New York	2,244	X	X
North Carolina	261	780	199
North Dakota	17	39	129
Ohio	326	397	22
Oklahoma	9	57	533
Oregon	429	782	82
Pennsylvania	594	2,063	247
Puerto Rico	147	116	-21
Rhode Island	48	121	152
South Carolina	121	281	132
South Dakota	35	80	129
Tennessee	153	416	172
Texas	1,108	2,123	92
Utah	58	247	326
Vermont	14	48	243
Virginia	222	548	147
Washington	64	409	539
West Virginia	14	33	136
Wisconsin	410	485	18
Wyoming	21	37	76
Total	15,685	30,171	92

Source: Individuals with Disabilities Education Act data, US Department of Education.
X - Figures not available

She's Mad As Hell and Not Taking It Any More

Kendra is a mom who apparently got sick and tired of the biased and illogical media coverage and shot back.

Her points were so good that I am posting the original article and her response.

I encourage the Valley Independent to be brave enough to publish it.

I encourage the Media to come to grips with the fact that people don't believe the medical community and the government claims that vaccines have no relationship to Autism, and by choosing to report those claims unchallenged, the public trust in them will ebb right along with their trust of PHARMA sponsored medicine.

[UPDATE: Kendra heard back from the author who is the father of a 16 year old with autism, and has softened a great deal toward him. She may update her remarks here.

This was part of a series. The latest installment, published today, indeed adds balance to the previous column. I had written to the columnist myself yesterday, and his response was, 'wait and see'.

To me, the most interesting part of his column today was this:

My wife was invited to attend a special luncheon held by National Association for Autism Research in Pittsburgh to kick off Walk Far for NAAR. About nine other parents of autistic children sat around the same table and naturally they began to discuss their children's condition. One by one, they expressed the same belief that the MMR shot caused their children to become autistic.

Even supporters of NAAR, who are the most anti autism/vaccine link group in existance, firmly believe that vaccines "caused" their own children's autism.

Stunning.

I saw an online poll a few weeks ago that 89% responded that they believed there was a link between vaccines and autism. So if everyone apparently believes this, even NAAR's own charity event goers, even the authors of articles that are criticized by parents who are actually turn out to be on the same "side" as they are, then what are we arguing about? Why are the authorities allowed to ignore the link?

When is someone going to stand up in public and say that the Emperor has no clothes???

I feel like I am living in the twilight zone.]

Report Addresses Autism Levels
By Chris Buckley
VALLEY INDEPENDENT
Tuesday, June 26, 2007

(Editor's note: This is the second part of a four-day series of informational stories about autism and profiles of people who are afflicted with the condition.)

The results of the study sent shockwaves through the medical community.

The Centers for Disease Control announced earlier this year that it had determined one in every 150 children was afflicted with autism or an autistic spectrum disorder.

But Dr. Nancy Minshew was not surprised by the results.

The findings did not indicate an increase in the number of people with autism, but an increased awareness that autistic children are living in our society, Minshew said.

"No, it's not an epidemic, it's an issue of how well a job we're doing diagnosing these kids," said Minshew, professor of psychiatry and neurology at the University of Pittsburgh.

"In Pittsburgh, we're doing a pretty good job. But get an hour out of Pittsburgh and we're doing a poor job."

Minshew has spent 22 years studying autism and is director of the National Institutes of Health Collaborative Program's Excellence in Autism at the University of Pittsburgh. She said university-based diagnoses are most effective in identifying autism.

Minshew said recent surveys found similar results to the CDC report. The community of Brick Township, N.J., concluded in 2001 that the rate was one in 150. A cluster of studies done from 2001 to 2005 found results ranging from one in 150 to one in 170. Autism related agencies agreed to use a figure of one in 166

The national numbers are based on two CDC surveys encompassing 22 states, including Pennsylvania.

The Autism Society of Pennsylvania estimates there are about 75,000 people statewide with some form of autism and about 4,000 in the Pittsburgh region.

Still, Minshew said the figure may be even more startling. She said the CDC study could not reach home-schooled children and those in private schools.

Most pediatricians are not trained to diagnose autism, Minshew said. Regional centers for diagnosing and treating autism are needed, she said.

Collecting information on the number of autistic individuals is also hampered because families are not open to discussing their children. Society tends to cut off ties with families with autistic children.

Minshew recalled one parent of an autistic child who noted, "We don't have friends anymore. The only friends we have are the people who have an autistic child. Our old friends cut away."

MMR a cause?

Whether mumps, measles and rubella vaccinations are a cause of autism, especially the spike in autism cases in the past 20 years, has been debated.

In the June 16, 2005, edition of "Rolling Stone" magazine, an article titled "Deadly Immunity," by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., theorized a link between thimerosal in inoculations and autism in children.

Thimerosal is an antiseptic and antifungal agent that has been used as a preservative in vaccines, immune globulin preparations, skin test antigens, anti-venoms, ophthalmic and nasal products, and tattoo inks.

The compound is being phased out of most childhood vaccinations. Packaging the vaccines in single-dose vials eliminates the need for bacteriostatics such as Thimerosol.

Dr. Andrew Wakefield, of the Royal Free and University College Medical School in London, was the lead author of a controversial 1998 research study, published in the Lancet, which reported bowel symptoms in a selected sample of 12 children with autistic spectrum disorders and other disabilities, and alleged a possible connection with MMR vaccination.

Although in the paper the authors stressed no causal connection had been proven, Wakefield called for suspension of the triple MMR vaccine, recommending instead that the three vaccines be administered with one-year gaps.

A controversy surrounding his findings occurred in 2004, when it was reported in The London Times that some children in the study were recruited by an attorney preparing a lawsuit against a vaccine manufacturer.

The interpretation of the possible connection to vaccination, but not the report itself, subsequently was retracted by 10 of the paper's 13 authors.

General Medical Council, the regulator of the medical profession in the United Kingdom, has since investigated the reports' claims and is preparing to conduct hearings.

Currently, the U.S Court of Federal Claims is conducting hearings on whether the vaccines caused autism. More than 4,800 families have filed claims alleging the link.

Parents of autistic children - especially those diagnosed from 1988 to 2000, when Thimerosol was used in the vaccines - believe a connection exists.

Matt Kadash was developing at the same rate as a normal infant, and was even ahead of the curve. He spoke words at 13 months, for example, his mother, Sandy Kadash recalled.

Then, suddenly, his development stopped. He stopped speaking. The Amity woman is sure she knows why.

"I blame it on the MMR shots," Kadash said.

Kelli Tencer, of California, also believes the MMR vaccination is the root of her son's autism. She saw a dramatic change after he received the vaccination at about 16 months.

"I believe there is a direct link," Tencer said. "My son was fine and developing normally until he had that first shot."

Minshew, though, said the connection is purely coincidental. She said children usually show signs of developmental regression consistent with autism from 12 and 22 months of age. MMR shots are routinely given during that period.

She challenged parents who still believe in the link to view videotapes of their child's first birthday to look for signs of early regression.

"They are not oriented to other people," Minshew said. "They do not get the idea of presents, cake, celebration - the interaction with other people."

Chris Buckley can be reached at cbuckley@tribweb.com or (724) 684-2642.

Chris,

Do you ever stop when you hear all this and let the bat of common sense come up aside your head?

Anyone that repeats the "just better diagnosis" mantra cannot live in a reality based world. The story seemed to be about the CDC released data of 1 in every 150 but seemed to leave out the biggest shock that the CDC's study found. The study surprised the CDC by showing that diagnoses nationwide was abysmal. The CDC announced that their study showed that parents concerns and fears were being downplayed, ignorned, and neglected on average of 1 1/2 years after they expressed grave concerns. Does that sound like better diagnosis. No, instead, it sounds like what many of us know, that over 90% of all Autism diagnosis are parent driven. If this is the case then it would not have changed over time. A parent 20 years ago would have demanded just as adamantly "what is wrong with my child" as parents are demanding now.

Autism is not a unique skin rash that could be easily mis-identified as another rash. It is not a subtle condition and the signs and symptoms not easily missed. Missing autism is sort of like missing a grand mal seizure. The majority of those diagnosed will never live independently. They will require constant care for the rest of their typical lifespan. Autism is so devastating, there is no way it was ever missed in the past. When high-funcitoning or Aspergers is mentioned, even most of these individuals, while they may be verbally adept, will not lead an independent life either. Only the lightest affected could possibly "slip through the cracks" and those are probably more the ADD/ADHD area than autism. The criteria required to be met for an autism diagnosis under the DSM IV code are devastating and must incompass a majority of the areas across the Autism spectrum.

These so-called experts quoted in stories such as yours would like the American public to believe that our personal and collective memories are faulty. That we all lived among these people in the same numbers as now and we simply cannot remember them, but they were always there.

Many say other diagnosis are now more properly labeled Autism and were just mis-labeled or misunderstood before. How do they explain every school in America that is going broke from the sheer numbers. How do they explain the 20 year tenured teachers that cannot fathom the explosion in Autism and have never seen the kids in the numbers they are seeing now. Tiny towns with "Autism" classrooms, that never had an autistic student in over 50 years. Tiny towns with classrooms of kids unable to function in typical classrooms, unable to learn in a typical manner, unable to pay attention, sit still, grasp basic concepts, etc. etc. It would not have mattered what these kids were 'labeled' in the past, the schools still would have had to accomodate them, no matter the name that was put to their disability. But we all know that was not the case. Schools lack the facilities, staff, and training to deal with the tsunami of affected children.

I grew up in a town of less than 1,000 people. In my 12 years of education I never knew one kid with autism, or anyone I can remember that would have come close to meeting the criteria. I knew one child a few years older than me who was mentally retarded. 1 child many years older who was blind, and one a few years younger who died of cancer. My same home town now has Autism classrooms bulging at the seams. After coaching there for five years, four former athletes have informed me they have children diagnosed with severe Autism. Including myself, the former coach, that gives us five children with autism from 47 different mothers. But here in Oregon the rate state-wide is 1 in every 98. Of course this does not include ADD/ADHD, nor does it include the huge numbers of children now with life-threatening food allergies, the 1 in 5 with asthma, the 5000% increase in kids with diabetes, arthritis, cancer, etc.

Those like Dr. Paul Offit, owner of a vaccine patent, like to attempt to scare the American public with threats that if autism or other serious immune system diseases are connected to vaccines that people will stop vaccinating their children and serious childhood diseases will return. Just talking about vaccines and Autism, he speculated could destroy the health of American children. UH, Hello. It seems Dr. Offit is a little out of touch with reality. He is assuming we have some gold standard of health in our children today that merits protection. Yet new studies just today from Offit's very hospital and designed and run by Harvard University say our children are sicker than in any generation. Perhaps Americans aren't buying it anymore. Parents see their children's classrooms with Medicine "cubbies" where nearly half of all student have regular medication including the devastating numbers of children on anti-psychots, risperdal, ritalin, and more. Children with ANA kits, inhalers, and insulin injection kits. When you look at the life-shortening devastating lifelong illnesses children are now suffering from it sure makes a week with the measles look like a picnic. If Dr. Offit was more of the same, protect the great health of American children, no thank you. If he is proud of the ranking of 37th in the world of infant mortality...no thank you.

I saw a mainstream media poll the other day in which 89% of respondents replied that they believed in a link between vaccines and autism. Maybe all of us parents aren't such fringe whackos after all. The pharmaceutical companies have proven their motivation with lies and falsifications of drug trials and Americans are rightfully sceptical of all their claims now.

Just like global warming, the debate is over. In fact, besides government denials, there never was a debate. Injecting mercury into childrens' bodies is criminal, no debate. Mercury is a known neurotoxin, no debate. Mercury causes neurological damage, especially in fetuses and children, no debate. Only in corporate America can there even be a debate over injecting babies with the 2nd most toxic substance on earth. There is no debate, only corporate greed and self-preserving denials. An Autism Mom said the other day, "Autism spilled on a school room floor is a toxic event, the schools are shut down, the hazmat team called in, young people decontaminated, health screenings are done, and a major long term clean-up occurs. But, inject mercury into an infant and it's called a well baby visit".

The medias refusal to use common sense, to ask the tough hard questions is only making them look as bad as the now professional liars, protecting their own collective butts. I don't know how you can even write this stuff anymore without laughing or crying, but you have to have lost all common sense to not question even the most basic tenets of the crap now being spewed forth by the self-protectionists. Can you even have two neurons left to rub together and not see the truth? Apparently not.

Kendra Pettengill

Roseburg, Oregon

Mother of a recovered child, formerly diagnosed with Autism

Dan Burton Addresses Congress on the Vaccine Hearings

Not quite sure how I missed this one.

"I believe the families of these autistic children deserve to be compensated for their vaccine injury as Congress intended when it created VICP. I believe the science is there to prove this case and I am hopeful that the court will agree and at the end of this arduous process these 4,800 families will finally get justice."

When a respected republican congressman who held vaccine/autism hearings stands on the floor of the house and lists some research studies that support the vaccine/autism hypothesis, how the heck does the media get away with going on the air and repeatedly saying, "No Link"?

SPEECH OF
HON. DAN BURTON
OF INDIANA
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
TUESDAY, JUNE 19, 2007

• Mr. BURTON of Indiana. Madam Speaker, I rise tonight to talk about the Omnibus Autism Hearing which started on June 11, 2007, down at the U.S. Federal Claims Court here in Washington, DC. At issue are the 4,800 claims against the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program filed by parents of autistic children who believe, as I do, that thimerosal--the mercury-based preservative in vaccines--caused their children's disorders.



• There are many people in our health agencies, in the pharmaceutical industry and here in Congress who say that there is no the scientific evidence linking thimerosal and autism. However, during my tenure as chairman of Government Reform Committee (1997-2002), and as chairman of the Subcommittee on Human Rights and Wellness (2003-2005), I chaired numerous hearings examining the alarming increase in autism in this country over the last several decades. In the 1980s, roughly one in 10,000 American children was diagnosed with some kind of autism spectrum disorder. Today that number has risen to 1 in 150. I believe, as do many credible scientists and researchers, that the clear correlation between the dramatic rise in the number of autism cases, and the rapid expansion of the childhood vaccination schedule during that 20-year period, points to the mercury-based preservative thimerosal--routinely used in pediatric vaccines during the period--as a contributing factor to our country's literal epidemic of autism. In fact, I firmly believe my own grandson became autistic after receiving nine shots in 1 day, seven of which contained thimerosal. In fact, Dr. Bernard Rimland--founder and director of the Autism Research Institute--testified before the committee that classic autism, (noticeable from birth) has largely been replaced by late-onset or ``acquired autism''; a form of autism in which children are born normally developing but later regress into autism in the second year of life. He was one of the first to point to environmental insult through vaccine injury as a possible leading contributing factor.


• The truth is that since the initiation of my vaccine investigation, two schools of science have evolved leading to two very different conclusions. The first, largely funded by the Centers for Disease Control, consist of epidemiological evaluations in Denmark that look at medical files in individuals who developed autism and deciding whether or not thimerosal exposure was more predominant in the autism patients. Those who have focused solely on the epidemiology research have concluded that there is no relationship between vaccine injury and the onset of autism. However, once published, these studies were discovered to have many methodological flaws. For example, using individuals in Denmark did not provide a true comparison to the U.S. vaccine schedule, and by the CDC's own admission, the study could not really provide any true conclusion as to whether or not a subset of the population--because of vaccine exposure to mercury or some other vaccine injury--developed autism.


• The second school of research has conducted so-called ``hard'' science; providing objective measures through laboratory and animal research. For example, Dr. Hornig at Columbia University replicated the thimerosal exposure in vaccines in a mouse study and discovered mice exposed to thimerosal had both behavioral and biological responses--displaying autism like behaviors and exhibiting white matter changes in the brain that were measurable. Other laboratory research has shown that thimerosal exposure affects the protective sheath of the neurofibrals in the brain as well as the IGF-I molecule. And Dr. Jill James at the University of Arkansas has shown that thimerosal exposure affects the methylation process--the mechanism used to regulate genes and protect DNA from some types of damage.


• The most recent hard science study to be published is from Dr. Burbacher, a leading expert on mercury, who investigated the different affect methyl mercury and ethyl mercury had on primates. He found that ethylmercury--the form of mercury in thimerosal--stays in the brain (doing more harm) than methylmercury.


• The bottom line is that mercury is a base element and the most toxic substance known to science outside of radioactive materials; and each of these hard science studies, and more, show that it is biologically plausible for mercury exposure in vaccines to cause the onset of autism and provide tantalizing pieces in the puzzle about how.


• My support for the link between thimerosal and autism, especially in open congressional hearings has caused many people to throw around the accusation that I am ``anti-vaccine.'' My response to that is that vaccines are the only medications that are mandatory for Americans to receive and as such we have an even greater obligation to ensure that they are as safe as possible. In addition, experience tells us that, as with any other epidemic, while there may be underlying genetic susceptibilities, there usually is some type of environmental trigger as well, such as a virus, fungus, exposure to heavy metals, pollutants, or whatever. There has never, to the best of my knowledge, been a purely genetic epidemic. So, genetics alone simply cannot explain how we went from 1 in 10,000 children with autism spectrum disorders 20 years ago to 1 in 150 today.


• No one has ever identified a positive health benefit to mercury in the human body. Thus, it was sound public health policy to eliminate mercury from thermometers, blood pressure gauges, light switches, cosmetics, teething powder, horse liniment, hat-making materials, smokestack emission, and mining operations. It would also be sound public health policy to eliminate mercury from all vaccines.


• But Madam Speaker, getting the mercury out of all vaccines is only the first step. We also have a responsibility to help all of the children who have already been injured by mercury in vaccines. That is why the outcome of the Omnibus Autism Hearing is so critically important. In the 1980s, Congress creating the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program to shield medical professionals and vaccine manufacturers from liability if an individual suffered an adverse event from receiving vaccines. The compensation fund, which currently contains about $2.5 billion, is financed by a tax on pediatric vaccines. We created VICP to protect the vaccine supply and to insure that all who were injured by a vaccine would receive compensation in what was supposed to be a no-fault, easy to use manner. Congress intended for families to be compensated quickly and fairly; and when the evidence was close as to whether or not the medical condition in question was vaccine related or not--as is the case with thimerosal--the court should always err in favor of the injured. But over the years the system has broken and what was supposed to be quick and fair has become slow and contentious; which is why today 4,800 families are fighting in court to be heard. They have waited a long time for their day in court and I am pleased that the court is providing the transcripts online quickly and that audio streaming on the internet is being provided for the thousands of families who are not able to travel to Washington and actually be in the courtroom during the proceedings.


• As the Omnibus hearings proceed, I hope that all of the evidence regarding vaccine injury will be received by the courts and given a full and fair review. I believe the families of these autistic children deserve to be compensated for their vaccine injury as Congress intended when it created VICP. I believe the science is there to prove this case and I am hopeful that the court will agree and at the end of this arduous process these 4,800 families will finally get justice.

The Age of Autism: Study Sees Vaccine Risk

Dan Olmsted writes about the new vaccinated v. unvaccinated study. Parents have been asking for this study to be done for at least three years (that is when I came on the scene) and the FDA recommended that this study be done in 1982 when they mandated that thimerosal be removed from over the counter products because of the danger it posed.

Julie Gerberding, honing her shoveling skills, made excuses as to why it would just be to darn hard in July of 2005.

Referring to the new study that shows vaccinated children have 2.5 times the rate of NDDs as compared with unvaccinated children...

A spokesman for the CDC, which recommends the childhood immunization schedule and has conducted studies that found no link to autism, said the agency has not seen the Generation Rescue data.

"We look forward to learning more about the survey," spokesman Curtis Allen said. "It's important to note that self-report surveys on topics like this often have significant limitations, so one must be cautious with respect to interpreting the findings.

In April of 2005, the CDC posted a note on its web site saying that they were reviewing Evidence of Harm, and would be responding to it. We are still waiting for that response.

How long do you think it will take them to comment on this?

The Age of Autism: Study sees vaccine risk
By DAN OLMSTED

WASHINGTON, June 26 (UPI) -- A new, privately funded survey finds vaccinated U.S. children have a significantly higher risk of neurological disorders -- including autism -- than unvaccinated children.

In one striking finding, vaccinated boys 11-17 were more than twice as likely to have autism as their never-vaccinated counterparts.

The telephone survey of parents representing a total of 17,000 children appears to be the first of its kind -- and contrasts starkly with several government-backed studies that have found no risk from vaccines.

"No one has ever compared prevalence rates of these neurological disorders between vaccinated and unvaccinated children," said J.B. Handley, father of a child with autism and co-founder of Generation Rescue, which commissioned the $200,000 survey conducted by SurveyUSA, a respected marketing firm. "The phone survey isn't perfect, but these numbers point to the need for a comprehensive national study to gather this critical information.

"We have heard some speculation that unvaccinated children would be difficult to locate," Handley said. "But we were able to find more than enough in our sample of more than 17,000 children to establish confidence intervals at or above 95 percent for the primary comparisons we made."

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., reintroduced a bill first submitted last year calling for the National Institutes of Health to conduct such a study.

"Generation Rescue's study is impressive and forcefully raises some serious questions about the relationship between vaccines and autism," Maloney said. "What is ultimately needed to resolve this issue one way or the other is a comprehensive national study of vaccinated and unvaccinated children.

"The parents behind Generation Rescue only want information. These parents deserve more than roadblocks, they deserve answers. We can and should move forward in search of those answers."

Both Maloney and Handley said their efforts were sparked by Age of Autism columns that found anecdotal, unscientific evidence of less autism among the Amish, who have a lower vaccination rate. The column also reported on Homefirst Health Services in Chicago, whose director said there is no autism or asthma among several thousand never-vaccinated children who were home-delivered and remain patients of the family practice. The U.S. autism rate is 1 in 150 children, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A spokesman for the CDC, which recommends the childhood immunization schedule and has conducted studies that found no link to autism, said the agency has not seen the Generation Rescue data.

"We look forward to learning more about the survey," spokesman Curtis Allen said. "It's important to note that self-report surveys on topics like this often have significant limitations, so one must be cautious with respect to interpreting the findings.

"It's also important to note that previous studies involving hundreds of thousands of children have failed to find an association."

Generation Rescue's Handley, however, said those studies never compared vaccinated with unvaccinated American children. He also said his survey took its cue from the CDC's own phone-survey approach to estimating the incidence of such disorders among American children.

"Listening to the CDC talk about the reliability of parent reporting, we thought there's a quick way to get a proxy for whether or not there's any truth to the hypotheses that vaccines and all these neurological disorders are related," Handley said. His organization believes that mercury, including a type used for decades in routine childhood immunizations, is a major factor in the ten-fold increase in reported autism cases over the past 20 years.

Handley said the survey, conducted in nine counties in Oregon and California, asked parents "whether their child had been vaccinated, and whether that child had one or more of the following diagnoses: attention deficit disorder, ADHD, Asperger's syndrome, Pervasive Development Disorder-Not Otherwise Specified, or autism."

Results highlighted by Generation Rescue:

-- "Among more than 9,000 boys age 4-17, vaccinated boys were 2.5 times (155 percent) more likely to have neurological disorders, 224 percent more likely to have attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and 61 percent more likely to have autism."

-- "For older vaccinated boys in the 11-17 age bracket, the results were even more pronounced. Vaccinated boys were 158 percent more likely to have a neurological disorder, 317 percent more likely to have ADHD, and 112 percent more likely to have autism."

Handley said he believes the higher results for the older boys are probably more complete because not every child in the younger age group would have received a formal diagnosis.

Concern that vaccines are linked to the rise of autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders has been largely dismissed by public health officials and mainstream medical groups, especially since a 2004 report by the respected Institute of Medicine found no such evidence -- and suggested research money go to more "promising" areas.

But parents -- some of whom say they watched their children regress into autism immediately following physical reactions to vaccines -- have continued to press the issue. A U.S. vaccine court in Washington is currently hearing argument over whether nearly 5,000 such claims should be paid by a federal vaccine injury compensation fund.

Handley said the fact that his organization could produce such a study on a relative shoestring while the U.S. government has not suggests it is hesitant to confront the possible ramifications.

Two years ago CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding told UPI that "such studies could and should be done" but offered several reasons why they might prove difficult, including the variability of autism diagnoses, possible genetic differences in the Amish and the small number of never-vaccinated children in the United States.

"They haven't lifted a penny since then," Handley said.

Full results of the study are at generationrescue.org.

(The entire Age of Autism series is accessible at upi.com under Special Reports.)

(e-mail: dolmsted@upi.com)